Pakistan’s summer monsoon season has once again turned into a national tragedy. Between late June and early August, over 300 people were killed, including 242 deaths in northern districts, as torrential downpours triggered flash floods. This year’s rainfall was 15 percent higher than normal, a reminder of how climate change is transforming what should be a life-giving season into a recurring disaster.
The destruction was swift. Floodwaters submerged highways, swept away houses, and wiped out standing crops. For many communities, it echoed the catastrophic floods of 2022, which killed more than 1,700 people and displaced millions.
Science points to human fingerprints
An international team of 18 climate scientists from Pakistan, the UK, France, and the Netherlands studied this year’s extreme rainfall. Their findings were unequivocal: human-driven climate change amplified the intensity of Pakistan’s monsoon. By burning fossil fuels, the world has warmed the planet by 1.3°C — enough to make South Asian monsoon rains about 15 percent stronger than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate.
“With each tenth of a degree rise in temperature, the monsoon becomes more dangerous,” said Dr. Maryam Zakaria of Imperial College London. “Even slightly above-average rainfall months are now deadly for Pakistan.”
A blessing turned into a curse
Pakistan depends heavily on the monsoon, which delivers 70–80 percent of annual rainfall and replenishes reservoirs. But the blessing has turned into a curse. Historical records show that this year’s rains were not unprecedented, yet their impact was magnified by a warmer world.
The study estimates that in today’s climate, 30-day extreme monsoon spells can now be expected every five years. Once considered rare, such events are fast becoming routine.
Pakistan’s burden, world’s responsibility
Despite contributing less than 0.5 percent of historic carbon emissions, Pakistan is ranked 152nd in the world for climate preparedness. The country needs $40–50 billion annually to adapt to extreme weather, yet receives only a fraction of that amount from international donors.
At COP29, wealthy nations pledged to raise climate finance to $300 billion annually by 2035, but the UN warns the actual need is up to $359 billion higher each year. Currently, developing countries together receive just $28 billion annually — leaving nations like Pakistan dangerously exposed.
The cost of inaction
The financial stakes are staggering. A UN assessment projects that by 2050, unchecked climate disasters could cost Pakistan $1.2 trillion. Already, the country has seen extremes: this summer alone, northern districts recorded a blistering 48.5°C, followed weeks later by lethal floods.
For Pakistan, the message is twofold: global support must accelerate, and domestic resilience must strengthen. Without urgent action, the monsoon — once vital for agriculture and life — risks becoming synonymous with death and destruction.
